Cheers for that .........my browser has apparenty stopped being supported for win 7 , so I think its that and related Java stuff . I must get my pomcutor gear out of the stone age !
Well done Paul on the first week of your new venture. I think you are onto a winner. Also thoroughly enjoyed the Vox Markets podcast with Paul Hill. Two excellent company analysts discussing the good and the bad, PLEASE make this a regular weekly event.
hi Paul - I've just got round to familiarising myself with the site. Congratulations on setting this up so speedily, very impressive. Wish you every success with this venture and I will definitely be pledging my support.
Regarding the weekly recap, Paul x 2, I feel it adds most value where you incorporate thoughts that expand on the quick analysis carried out under pressure of time on the day of the trading update, rather than repeat it. I can’t comment in detail since most of your selection don’t match my fund profile, but I did think your Vistry comment benefited from having a few extra hours contemplation, even if it was unchanged directionally - and it appears the CEO came to the same conclusion! Are you aiming to predominantly cover stocks that reported in each past week? If not, there’s a danger we end up with something like one of Paul’s fund manager interviews, which end up too high level and constantly rotate the same stocks!
Same here. None of the shares covered in this episode are of any interest to me (mostly because I have no interest in the sectors) but then I don’t normally have time to watch hour long videos anyway, so I’m probably not the target audience! I have in the past selectively watched bits that discuss companies of interest to me, so adding the timeline is very useful.
Hi Paul, this looks a great site / idea. Will you be reviewing all small co announcements eg Kino trading update or only when figs come out ? Will you be covering all small cos ? Thanks ,Nick
Great reply Paul. Totally agree with how you plan to proceed. I like Kino but I bought at much lower levels so I understand why it’s not so cheap now . I think there is a huge growth spurt to come and they have no debt now but there is so much choice now Aim has crashed! I will be signing up next week to your site as I think it’s a no brainer . One last question ,will you include latest Stockopedia rankings in your articles ? Thanks ,Nick
Hi Nick, In the long-term I want to cover all small caps, but I would need at least 3 people to do that, it's not physically possible at present now I'm just a one man band.
So instead I'll be cherry-picking the most interesting company announcements, especially ones which are ahead exps, or profit warnings. Also I'll focus on companies that I've rated GREEN or AMBER/GREEN as priorities. Everything else, particularly if it's just an in line update, is not a priority with my limited resources.
I also look at the % price movers list each morning, and focus in on anything (regardless of mkt cap) that has moved in price on some interesting news (eg contract wins or losses, etc).
I'm bound to miss some interesting things on the day, so I very much want readers to post comments about companies of interest to you, but you need to say something about the company, and why you think it's interesting to review.
It's a team sport after all, so I very much encourage you all to participate and write up (balanced!) comments on companies you like, not just cherry picking the good points & glossing over the negatives ;-)
All of the above is very much how we did things at Stockopedia, when the SCVRs were there, but obviously I had Graham helping me 4 days per week. So I won't be able to cover quite as much here, in the first few months anyway.
MrContrarian will be exclusively posting his morning snapshots here from Monday 11/11/2024 , which is amazing, I'm thrilled at his support, and I know they will add value. He's doing it voluntarily, and on the basis that he does them when he feels like it, so it's not part of the paid-for service, just to be clear.
Given those issues, and the lack of divis, I can't get above AMBER for Kino. Optically cheap PER, but the balance sheet issues and cash outflows needed for legacy issues mean I think it's probably priced about right. There are lots of competitors in the services sector that it operates in, so just not a very exciting business. OK, but not exciting.
By all means explain why you (presumably) like KINO!
I had a look at Frontier Developments (FDEV) and I've found a decent review from their new game Planet Coaster 2. The review is in a reputable gaming digital newspaper (Vandal) and they are scoring the game with 8 out of 10. Positive reader comments as well so maybe there's something else wrong with the company?
Apparently it;s got mixed reviews on the Steam platform from players there and has dropped out of the top list.Mixed reviews tends to predict future underperformance fairly well historically apparently.
Good to know Nick, wasn't aware of that statistic. I guess bad reviews may come from people with perhaps lower end computers or the game performing differently from platform to platform
Perhaps they need to optimise it for different platforms.Not much of a gamer unfortunately.Steam is a massive international platform for games and gamers, which i wasn't totally aware of really until fairly recently myself and some people are giving more credibility to the average user review than equivalent magazine reviews currently.
All still to play for but one i'm going to keep on the watchlist for now after their previous recent disappointments (i was pretty excited for a Warhammer game as a non gamer and investor with the obvious success of Games Workshop) , as this one is supposed to be a follow on from what had been their bestseller.
Apparently they do do user inspired game updates after release (i think) though, so perhaps it can be improved with user feedback.I held Fdev and sold for a profit a few months ago after the big run,.Half by luck and half due to the huge velocity of the move at the time.
I consider myself old school and not much of a gamer nowadays, so my first port of call would be an specialist gaming magazine to check out reviews. I was aware of the Steam platform, used it in their early days but I wasn't aware at all you could post reviews there!
I think it's worth to add FDEV to a watchlist and see if it can rebound as you've said
I had the same problem as you, i.e., I couldn't use capital letters and I couldn't add any spaces. The fix I used was to go into my account and overwrite my real name with 'Logical David'. Then click on Save. This allows you to use any name you wish to use and it allows you to use Capital Letters and spaces.
Regarding Greggs (GRG)- does anybody know how hard they'll be hit by NI and minimum wage hikes, relatively speaking? My impression is that their stores are nowhere near as staff-intensive as, say, McDonalds- smaller footprint, but still...I'd imagine their revenue/profit per employee numbers are very strong vs peers. I suppose the other factor is franchised vs. company operated stores...
Yes, I'm normally fairly sanguine about director selling as there are so many possible motivations, but that's lumpy enough to be worrying... as for the business, this is one I'd like to buy and tuck away at something like 13-14x PE, missed it around the Truss budget at those levels if memory serves. Very good business but I'd want the multiple on my side. I think we're probably at the point where I ought to leaf through the reports...
Clearly there is execution risk on achieving 29m revenue in H2, I agree with these concerns. They achieved 13m in H2-24 so need to scale significantly.
Gross Profit Margin at 41%, Zeus has 35% for FY25 so it's a margin beat, that will hopefully flow into the bottom line.
This was from the FY24 results
Gross margin in the first two years of projects in India is expected to be around 35-40% due to revenue on hardware in the first two years of a project. After year two of each project it is expected gross margins of greater than 90% will be achieved due to the transition to services revenue
Funding seems secure -
The Company has been approached with alternative sources of finance, to support growth, such as secured loans, which it could accept should such a requirement arise. It also continues to discuss options of taking equity into its subsidiary in India.
Valuation of 38m with an expected uPAT of 2m seems a little punchy x17 on a value perspective but on a growth potential perspective I think there is a great opportunity
I've published a post on my own substack on CYAN and why I've invested modestly - even though it's a cash-burning loss-making serial disappointer - and why I think the risks are over-estimated and the rewards under-estimated. But the risks are real and none zero. So not for many investors until it gets through the next few months. Or not?
Thanks for explaining the bull case on CYAN. It's not for me, due to serial disappointments and fundraises, and accounts that I don't believe (eg excessive receivables). But it's great to hear why an investor sees positives, we always need to keep an open mind & to listen to positive and negative views, so that's a helpful post, thanks!
Ah just deleted my own comment (damn computers).. If you haven't found a solution..
'JavaScript is a programming language that allows developers to create interactive web page'.
Some simple potential fixes : Have you tried deleting the browser's cookies/history? Do you have an browser extensions that block popups (if so they could be interfering with substack website's features)?Otherwise you could try googling 'how to enable javascript for windows 8.1' (for whichever browser you use).That will allow you to check javascript is enabled for the browser. It's usually an easier check through the browser's settings feauture or something similar and checking a box is ticked to confirm.
Maybe you have the new Substack Anti-social Mode set :-) I would check all the settings including your web browser. I had to disable most of the substack defaults so that I didn’t get an email every time someone coughed. Why do all social media platforms just want to deluge you with notifications? Drives me mad.
Great stuff ! I like the new lay out much better . Your output speed is amazing ......... dont get burnout ! I wonder what your typing speed is ? It must be right up there with the best of them .
Hi Paul, an ideal sponsor for the Paul Hill weekly video on YT is 'Stockopedia' - teamwork is the name of the game. I messaged Paul Hill earlier in the week that you should both do a weekly update on YT and suggested that Paul does a interview with Glen Goodman ref crypto etc. Glen would help attract an even more diverse range of potential subscribers. Also I think it would be a good idea to do a deep dive into Wise - its not often we get a company that could become the PayPal of remittances in the UK. Finally, I'm really interested in how you set this up on Substack - I'm sure their are plenty of budding subscriber entrpreneurs who could use it to hatch some future ideas in the future. All the best PensionDeficit
Yes but they are only reporting going from a 4.86% holding to 5.02% and need to report going > 5%. So a very small top up to an existing holding only. Nothing to get excited about.
Cheers for that .........my browser has apparenty stopped being supported for win 7 , so I think its that and related Java stuff . I must get my pomcutor gear out of the stone age !
Well done Paul on the first week of your new venture. I think you are onto a winner. Also thoroughly enjoyed the Vox Markets podcast with Paul Hill. Two excellent company analysts discussing the good and the bad, PLEASE make this a regular weekly event.
hi Paul - I've just got round to familiarising myself with the site. Congratulations on setting this up so speedily, very impressive. Wish you every success with this venture and I will definitely be pledging my support.
Regarding the weekly recap, Paul x 2, I feel it adds most value where you incorporate thoughts that expand on the quick analysis carried out under pressure of time on the day of the trading update, rather than repeat it. I can’t comment in detail since most of your selection don’t match my fund profile, but I did think your Vistry comment benefited from having a few extra hours contemplation, even if it was unchanged directionally - and it appears the CEO came to the same conclusion! Are you aiming to predominantly cover stocks that reported in each past week? If not, there’s a danger we end up with something like one of Paul’s fund manager interviews, which end up too high level and constantly rotate the same stocks!
Same here. None of the shares covered in this episode are of any interest to me (mostly because I have no interest in the sectors) but then I don’t normally have time to watch hour long videos anyway, so I’m probably not the target audience! I have in the past selectively watched bits that discuss companies of interest to me, so adding the timeline is very useful.
Hi Paul, this looks a great site / idea. Will you be reviewing all small co announcements eg Kino trading update or only when figs come out ? Will you be covering all small cos ? Thanks ,Nick
Great reply Paul. Totally agree with how you plan to proceed. I like Kino but I bought at much lower levels so I understand why it’s not so cheap now . I think there is a huge growth spurt to come and they have no debt now but there is so much choice now Aim has crashed! I will be signing up next week to your site as I think it’s a no brainer . One last question ,will you include latest Stockopedia rankings in your articles ? Thanks ,Nick
Hi Nick, In the long-term I want to cover all small caps, but I would need at least 3 people to do that, it's not physically possible at present now I'm just a one man band.
So instead I'll be cherry-picking the most interesting company announcements, especially ones which are ahead exps, or profit warnings. Also I'll focus on companies that I've rated GREEN or AMBER/GREEN as priorities. Everything else, particularly if it's just an in line update, is not a priority with my limited resources.
I also look at the % price movers list each morning, and focus in on anything (regardless of mkt cap) that has moved in price on some interesting news (eg contract wins or losses, etc).
I'm bound to miss some interesting things on the day, so I very much want readers to post comments about companies of interest to you, but you need to say something about the company, and why you think it's interesting to review.
It's a team sport after all, so I very much encourage you all to participate and write up (balanced!) comments on companies you like, not just cherry picking the good points & glossing over the negatives ;-)
All of the above is very much how we did things at Stockopedia, when the SCVRs were there, but obviously I had Graham helping me 4 days per week. So I won't be able to cover quite as much here, in the first few months anyway.
MrContrarian will be exclusively posting his morning snapshots here from Monday 11/11/2024 , which is amazing, I'm thrilled at his support, and I know they will add value. He's doing it voluntarily, and on the basis that he does them when he feels like it, so it's not part of the paid-for service, just to be clear.
KINO - checking on my spreadsheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qg5fdiSOI39byXNhfaAbSdntDL3VTMuB49-J4aigeE0/edit?gid=1669180010#gid=1669180010
I can see that I last covered KINO on 2/8/2024, when it announced the last legacy project is finished on time & on budget. I concluded "continuing business looks OK". Also see the SCVR here on 9/7/2024 where I mentioned some remaining concerns with KINO (mostly its stretched balance sheet) - https://app.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-tue-9-july-2024-puls-agfx-beg-vty-cpi-htg-movers-indv-page-brief-lgrs-wine-1001689/comments/1001793
Given those issues, and the lack of divis, I can't get above AMBER for Kino. Optically cheap PER, but the balance sheet issues and cash outflows needed for legacy issues mean I think it's probably priced about right. There are lots of competitors in the services sector that it operates in, so just not a very exciting business. OK, but not exciting.
By all means explain why you (presumably) like KINO!
Paul what is your direct email please as seem to have subscribed x 2 and having problems over payment . Thanks
Vistry CEO bought £2m in shares towards the end of trading yesterday.
I had a look at Frontier Developments (FDEV) and I've found a decent review from their new game Planet Coaster 2. The review is in a reputable gaming digital newspaper (Vandal) and they are scoring the game with 8 out of 10. Positive reader comments as well so maybe there's something else wrong with the company?
Apparently it;s got mixed reviews on the Steam platform from players there and has dropped out of the top list.Mixed reviews tends to predict future underperformance fairly well historically apparently.
Good to know Nick, wasn't aware of that statistic. I guess bad reviews may come from people with perhaps lower end computers or the game performing differently from platform to platform
Perhaps they need to optimise it for different platforms.Not much of a gamer unfortunately.Steam is a massive international platform for games and gamers, which i wasn't totally aware of really until fairly recently myself and some people are giving more credibility to the average user review than equivalent magazine reviews currently.
All still to play for but one i'm going to keep on the watchlist for now after their previous recent disappointments (i was pretty excited for a Warhammer game as a non gamer and investor with the obvious success of Games Workshop) , as this one is supposed to be a follow on from what had been their bestseller.
Apparently they do do user inspired game updates after release (i think) though, so perhaps it can be improved with user feedback.I held Fdev and sold for a profit a few months ago after the big run,.Half by luck and half due to the huge velocity of the move at the time.
I consider myself old school and not much of a gamer nowadays, so my first port of call would be an specialist gaming magazine to check out reviews. I was aware of the Steam platform, used it in their early days but I wasn't aware at all you could post reviews there!
I think it's worth to add FDEV to a watchlist and see if it can rebound as you've said
Loved the live chat today Paul's! Fantastic stuff!!!
I want to reset my Handle but the edit function appears to refuse to accept Upper Case. What's the trick?
Hi Martyn,
I had the same problem as you, i.e., I couldn't use capital letters and I couldn't add any spaces. The fix I used was to go into my account and overwrite my real name with 'Logical David'. Then click on Save. This allows you to use any name you wish to use and it allows you to use Capital Letters and spaces.
David.
Thanks LD!
Regarding Greggs (GRG)- does anybody know how hard they'll be hit by NI and minimum wage hikes, relatively speaking? My impression is that their stores are nowhere near as staff-intensive as, say, McDonalds- smaller footprint, but still...I'd imagine their revenue/profit per employee numbers are very strong vs peers. I suppose the other factor is franchised vs. company operated stores...
Note the CFO at Greggs dumped £1.85m of shares at £28.51 each (65k qty) on 8 Oct 2024.
Yes, I'm normally fairly sanguine about director selling as there are so many possible motivations, but that's lumpy enough to be worrying... as for the business, this is one I'd like to buy and tuck away at something like 13-14x PE, missed it around the Truss budget at those levels if memory serves. Very good business but I'd want the multiple on my side. I think we're probably at the point where I ought to leaf through the reports...
re. BOO- "sort it out through either handbags at dawn, or a drunken dance-off between Big Mike and Mahmud! They both enjoy a skinful."
From memory, this would likely end with Big Mike vomiting in the fireplace then ordering doner kebabs all round!
Hi Paul,
CYAN -
Clearly there is execution risk on achieving 29m revenue in H2, I agree with these concerns. They achieved 13m in H2-24 so need to scale significantly.
Gross Profit Margin at 41%, Zeus has 35% for FY25 so it's a margin beat, that will hopefully flow into the bottom line.
This was from the FY24 results
Gross margin in the first two years of projects in India is expected to be around 35-40% due to revenue on hardware in the first two years of a project. After year two of each project it is expected gross margins of greater than 90% will be achieved due to the transition to services revenue
Funding seems secure -
The Company has been approached with alternative sources of finance, to support growth, such as secured loans, which it could accept should such a requirement arise. It also continues to discuss options of taking equity into its subsidiary in India.
Valuation of 38m with an expected uPAT of 2m seems a little punchy x17 on a value perspective but on a growth potential perspective I think there is a great opportunity
Hi David,
I've published a post on my own substack on CYAN and why I've invested modestly - even though it's a cash-burning loss-making serial disappointer - and why I think the risks are over-estimated and the rewards under-estimated. But the risks are real and none zero. So not for many investors until it gets through the next few months. Or not?
You should find it here
https://substack.com/@illiswilgig
I can't seem to search it on substack at the moment, but I'm a newbie to substack creating
cheers
Mark
Hi David,
Thanks for explaining the bull case on CYAN. It's not for me, due to serial disappointments and fundraises, and accounts that I don't believe (eg excessive receivables). But it's great to hear why an investor sees positives, we always need to keep an open mind & to listen to positive and negative views, so that's a helpful post, thanks!
Regards, Paul.
The like button does not work for me ? Is this due to still windows 7 , anyone ?
Me too. Windows 8.1,. I get javascript:void() and searches haven't found the solution
Ah just deleted my own comment (damn computers).. If you haven't found a solution..
'JavaScript is a programming language that allows developers to create interactive web page'.
Some simple potential fixes : Have you tried deleting the browser's cookies/history? Do you have an browser extensions that block popups (if so they could be interfering with substack website's features)?Otherwise you could try googling 'how to enable javascript for windows 8.1' (for whichever browser you use).That will allow you to check javascript is enabled for the browser. It's usually an easier check through the browser's settings feauture or something similar and checking a box is ticked to confirm.
Maybe you have the new Substack Anti-social Mode set :-) I would check all the settings including your web browser. I had to disable most of the substack defaults so that I didn’t get an email every time someone coughed. Why do all social media platforms just want to deluge you with notifications? Drives me mad.
HAha same here, Substack was bombarding me with notifications & emails, but I went into settings and you can turn them all off easily.
Great stuff ! I like the new lay out much better . Your output speed is amazing ......... dont get burnout ! I wonder what your typing speed is ? It must be right up there with the best of them .
Hi Paul, an ideal sponsor for the Paul Hill weekly video on YT is 'Stockopedia' - teamwork is the name of the game. I messaged Paul Hill earlier in the week that you should both do a weekly update on YT and suggested that Paul does a interview with Glen Goodman ref crypto etc. Glen would help attract an even more diverse range of potential subscribers. Also I think it would be a good idea to do a deep dive into Wise - its not often we get a company that could become the PayPal of remittances in the UK. Finally, I'm really interested in how you set this up on Substack - I'm sure their are plenty of budding subscriber entrpreneurs who could use it to hatch some future ideas in the future. All the best PensionDeficit
Crickey - strikes me that there are far more comments here than on the "other side" ??! (The excitement of a new toy!).
Just wondering if anyone has any thoughts or insights into the fact that IG Markets have just purchased a >3% share of Secure Trust Bank (STB) (https://app.stockopedia.com/share-prices/secure-trust-bank-LON:STB/news/reg-secure-trust-bankplc-holding-s-in-company-urn:newsml:reuters.com:20241108:nRSH5766La.). This got walloped last week by the ruling on the car loan commissions followed by a profit warning. Do we take it as good or bad news that IG are investing?
Appreciated thank you
IG have not purchased a stake in STB. They are simply issuing the TR-1 on behalf of a US Mutual fund manager called Massachusetts Financial.
I see, thank you. I guess Mass. Financial see it a buying opportunity then.
Yes but they are only reporting going from a 4.86% holding to 5.02% and need to report going > 5%. So a very small top up to an existing holding only. Nothing to get excited about.