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Hoenir's avatar

YouGov Plc (YOU) - Up 8.64%, and was up a bit the previous two days. I haven't seen any news. AI tells me "The volume—over 400,000 shares traded—is well above average, suggesting strong interest". I've no idea if that's right or if it's getting it from old data.

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Hoenir's avatar
2dEdited

UK AI - The UK was 3rd globally for AI funding last year, with Germay 5th and France 6th the only other two European countries in the top ten. I've no info about the sources or application of the funding.

Nvidia's CEO says we're rich with computer scientists, and a fantastic place for VCs to invest, the ecosystem is perfect for take-off, but (surprisingly) we're the largest AI ecosystem in the world without its own infrastructure, which I think means we can't supply enough energy to the right places, but he might mean we haven't bought enough of Nvidia's chips.

From "Has Europe Already Lost the AI Arms Race? | Bloomberg Tech: Europe 06/20/2025" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOk0p55MMxU

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Boon Koh's avatar

The great thing about cloud computing is that the AI software can be developed in different locations to the hardware that runs the code. So an AI software industry can thrive in the UK, without the need to build massive, cost efficient data centres.

Data centre location will matter for end consumers of AI. Once AI is used for more real-time, always on applications... latency becomes an issue, and so the data centres / computing centres need to be close to the end usepoint.

What this will mean is that AI might be more expensive to UK consumers and businesses to use, if the application requires the AI to be running off UK infrastructure for latency. So we might fall behind other countries globally in productivity gains from AI.

But a lot can change with electricity pricing. Right now, its all because of our dependency on gas generated electricity. But with the pace of battery storage and also green hydrogen emerging, both having a decent investment environment in the UK, the situation might be very different in a few years time.

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Paul Hill's avatar

#DGE

One consequence of Trumps new hard line immigration controls, is that his ICE police force is actively searching for Latino, Hispanic & Caribbean illegals, especially in Los Angeles, Texas and Florida.

As a result, many people within these communities have disappeared underground &/or are staying in doors, which appears to have already led to a marked reduction in consumption of Tequila (re Brown Foreman) and Corona (Constellation Brands) in the US.

Meaning given Diageo is the biggest producer of Tequila (Don Julio) in America by a wide margin - then this might be causing them a problem too?

https://open.spotify.com/episode/65NvJcp5FRU3EuanNc5Nc4?si=d4c0b8156a6c4347

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JAS's avatar

I am still surprised at no discussion anywhere that I am aware of potential action against the Directors at Argentex. Surely they owed a duty of care to the company if not the shareholders. A successful action might sharpen up Directors sense of responsibility generally.

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JAS's avatar

Brass lamplight and classical paintings. Very Richard Stavely!

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EssexPete's avatar

On the subject of fans, I discovered Meaco a few years ago. Whisper quiet and move far more air at lower revs than conventional fans. You'll be able to leave these ones on during a podcast :)

https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0D1C6RP1P

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Boon Koh's avatar

Meaco fans are solid, have one in my house.

For those looking for value, the Honeywell one on Amazon c£20 is pretty good. Powerful, small to store away. A little noisy, but its just white noise after 5 minutes and arguably helps sleep.

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Small/Mid Caps with Paul Scott's avatar

Funny you should mention electric fans aiding sleep. When I'm in London, I find the random background noise from outside keeps waking me up. But a fan next to the bed on low, masks all but the worst background noise, and I sleep like a log. Essential during heatwaves too.

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Mikex1's avatar

I have a Meaco Arete dehumidifier-quiet and works great. If you have a ‘cool’ room and can shut windows and doors it makes things much more comfortable in humid weather. Pity they aren’t a PLC!

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Wizard of Windsor's avatar

IDHC (Integrated Diagnostics). Another cheery RNS from this health diagnostics provider operating in the go-go markets of the Middle East and Africa.

The company today announced the acquisition of CAIRO RAY, a radiology scanning and radiotherapy facility in New Cairo for c £6m, while noting the serious undersupply and continued demand trajectory in the Egyptian market.

IDHC is decidely not feeling any recessionary headwinds. Revenue in the last quarter is up 35% and operating profit up 66%. The company is also demonstrating that its investments are paying off, with Sharescope putting its ROIC at 25%. Forward net profit forecasts for the next two years are in the 20% range y-o-y.

Many of the countries IDHC operate in have high inflation rates. But then, they also are high growth, especially in the health sector where the ageing demographic are underserved in the basics we take for granted in the NHS (like health scans). One can read through the inflation risk by looking at the company's net profit margin, which is in the 20%+ range (stripping out COVID). I own.

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Paul F's avatar

I hadn't realised the significance of the bid for Downing Renewables. This is the first major bid that I've seen for a renewables energy investment trust, resulting in a significant jump in price.

I've parked quite a hefty chunk into renewables trusts, in the hope of high short term divis and a closing discount, while I research more normal investments. So far my thesis is playing out quite well, with some decent upward moves in price.

I have noted that Greencoat UK Wind and Foresight Solar have hardly budged. the market doesn't like plays in a single category as much as diversified plays. But I added to my UK Wind yesterday. I suspect that these two may be vulnerable to a bid, but let's see.

FGEN, TRIG and ORIT all moving upward. I hold all of these, plus CORD.

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David Cartner's avatar

Downing is the best renewable I hope it helps the others

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Paul Hill's avatar

#FDEV #EVPL

According to the boys at CMC Markets, the gaming sector is going like the clappers following the launch of Nintendo's new Switch 2 - which has apparently become the fastest-selling console in the company’s history, with 3.5m units flying off the shelves within the first 4 days.

I guess this should boost the game developers too?

https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/opto/ntdoy-sony-and-msft-gaming-renaissance-in-2025?opto-email=hide&lid=pq6pkmeimqts

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EagleWeslake's avatar

Hi Paul, Edmund Shing highlighted this sector as one to watch a few weeks back. ESGB - VanEck Video Gaming and eSports UCITS ETF worth a look maybe? (I hold)

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Nyamen Sedap Lazat's avatar

Hi Paul, I don’t think FDev have any plans for titles on Switch 2, they are PC focused with occasional console ports. Their CMS games tend to work best with keyboard and mouse controllers.

They have recently been releasing some compelling DLC material for their games, and I think they are going to do OK with JWE3 but I would want a lower price before buying. 200p would be a great entry point and I think there is a chance we will see it retrace to that level again.

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BriefedUp - Jon's avatar

Tend to agree.

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Nyamen Sedap Lazat's avatar

What are everyone’s views on the pending July 8th tarriff changes? U.S. treasury secretary seems to be walking it back and shifting the date to the right….

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Phoenix's avatar

Hi where have you seen the news re Bessant doing this as must admit with the 90 day pause running down this is my area of focus currently.

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Phoenix's avatar

Many thanks lets hope he does this, Bessant comes across like a bit of a bumbler on tv but he seems to be the only one in Trumps gang who knows what he's doing and has some common sense.

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TheOx2906's avatar

I notice that Lord Lee has recently added #CARR to his portfolio.

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Paul F's avatar

I don't know why. It doesn't look good on basic valuation metrics....whereas PZC and Anpario do.....

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PensionDeficit's avatar

Good morning Paul, after seeing the picture of your London set-up I thought the image underneath was your garden. All the best

PD

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Paul F's avatar

On Orchard Funding, can I point out that at the Half Year, the company strongly questioned the value of remaining on AIM?

I’m not sure whether or not that renders the company uninvestable.

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TheOx2906's avatar

I’m sure a lot of you listen to this podcast already, Steve Clapham, but generally they’re very good and this is no exception, he interviews Dave Iben longtime US value investor (yes there are one or two still alive!) with $6bn under management. Anyway the point being, he’s moved his whole team to the UK for 9 weeks this summer because he thinks the UK market is so undervalued! Very interesting indeed!

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-balance-sheet/id1581153925?i=1000713518311

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james durrant's avatar

Huge thank you to both Pauls - 2 P's in a Pod (Cast) I really enjoyed yesterday's VOX Markets presentation and I especially liked the 2 summaries of the conversations you had with Cordel & Bango management - really very useful and insightful. But the best bit, in my opinion, was the fact that both Paul's agreed they would still be doing this in 30 years time and still loving it - I certainly hope to be with you both on that particular voyage! (Makes a change from the overused journey!)

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Paul Hill's avatar

Many thanks James & Simon for the very kind words.

As you might imagine, Scottie & I are both addicted to stock picking and capital markets in general. So Thursday's smallcap show will hopefully continue for many years ahead.

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Mr Andrew Bolton's avatar

Loved the Vox markets podcasts as well as this.I agree it feels like a bull market in small mid caps.I noticed the Fidelity Special Values manager said he has been buying UK mid and small caps.Pauls report back from Mello that US institutions are investing in UK ,even if its FTSE 100 the money filters down.The UK savings rate at 12% and reduction in credit card debt plus likely interest rate reductions which the BOE hinted at in their notes are also positive catalysts when sentiment returns and the sunshine tends to open the consumers wallet!

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Simon Rowan's avatar

Absolutely concur. Their wide depth of knowledge across the markets is quite staggering. Great jovial off the cuff style but also insightful and entertaining.

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Small/Mid Caps with Paul Scott's avatar

Thanks James & Simon for the positive feedback, much appreciated. As you can probably tell, we really enjoy doing the Vox weekly roundup videos, and PaulH does a great job in preparation, and keeping it moving.

PaulH came up with the idea of us together doing zooms with some interesting companies during the week, and we think it adds a lot of value, so we'll try to do more of those.

With our Bango (I hold) call, the CEO was also called Paul, so it was getting a bit ridiculous at one point!

Best wishes, PaulS.

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Simon Rowan's avatar

I think many of us here, like myself, are possibly on their own investing which in itself can be quite scary and exciting. When I started investing, I had one friend doing his own investing, and I was a trustee on a small family trust run by a bank (aggghhh!). The first person I subscribed to a few years back was Alpesh Patel, who I believe is a founder of Sharescope. His opening was ‘The worst thing that can happen to a novice investor is instant success.’ His main advice was money management, momentum, and keep your portfolio small and balanced, cut your losses, never average down, unless you only take an opening position. I havnt followed it to the letter, because for every golden rule there are always many exceptions, but I currently rotate around 13 stock, with 4 long term positions (over two years). Share magazines I stopped years ago as I found them boring, not particularly accurate or helpful. I have had two or three managed/advisory accounts. One was just about ok, one was dreadful , should have gone to court, and the last one I had did take to court.

You and PH’s services really are invaluable to anyone trying to go it alone. In my experience that is the only way. In fact you’d be a fool not join really. In the end it is up to us individual investors but its a whole lot more comfortable being in a gang!

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davefromiom's avatar

I wholeheartedly agree with the comments here.

I have felt too much of a lone-wolf in the past, trying to pick my way through various experts, bulletin boards and share magazines & websites, which have often been too high-brow & difficult to understand and take action & insight from. And then I came across the two Paul's and Richard Crow and everything just made more sense and I am learning from all of these experts every day and this can only be good for my investments.

To anyone here as a free subscriber who is thinking of taking up an annual paid subscription on this substack, I would say give it a go - I would highly recommend it!

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Small/Mid Caps with Paul Scott's avatar

Fantastic feedback, thanks guys, very much appreciated! :-)

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EagleWeslake's avatar

Further to the news yesterday wrt the changes in the Government's view on drilling in the North Sea has anyone any thoughts on "picks and shovels" type companies who might benefit? James Fisher(also have a defence side to their business), Hunting, Plexus, Ashtead Tech, Tekmar?

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SEClay's avatar

Serica Energy (SQZ) maybe

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Pete M's avatar

$WHD Cactus Wellhead are a US outfit that make, shocking i know, wellheads. Can't imagine they'd be a huge beneficiary of an uptick in the N Sea though

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Javed's avatar

What's currently under discussion in the North Sea is only allowing the drilling of two specific oilfields where licenses were already granted before Labour came to power. No official consideration being given currently to actually granting new licenses in the North Sea or removing the EPL. In a couple of years thoughts might start turning to the 2029 election where Reform and the Tories are both likely to promise a much more friendly North Sea policy

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Hoenir's avatar

A report from the BBC says environmental impact assessments submitted by operators will have to include emissions from burning the oil & gas (scope 3 emissions),

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c994v5dy3p0o . I think it means that the Supreme Court ruling that kicked off the problem, has not been reversed by new rules, it just means that operators and regulators know what has to be considered and included in a submission, making submissions possible. The government says, "The new guidance, published today (19 June), will ensure the full effects of fossil fuel extraction on the environment are recognised in consenting decisions. It sets out how environmental impacts of oil and gas should be assessed, providing a clear way forward for the industry." https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-guidance-issued-for-environmental-impact-assessments , and I assume "the full effects" includes the effects of burning.

Currently I'm thinking,

1) While there's more clarity, allowing operators to submit plans to regulators, scope 3 emissions will still be considered. The likelihood of approval depends on politics and regulators' attitudes. That's too hard for me. If Ed Miliband resigns as Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, saying the government has gone soft on climate change, then I'll be a lot more hopeful about the industry politics.

2) The effect of the rules doesn't seem to be restricted to two North Sea oilfields (Rosebank and Jackdaw). Serica's Buchan field might be one where a plan for extraction could now be submitted.

I'm far from being expert on North Sea O&G, or UK politics & regulation, and ready to learn if I'm wrong.

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Hoenir's avatar
2dEdited

The government's statement talks about jobs, but they seem more interested in jobs in carbon capture and storage than in extraction. It mentions the £9.4 billion commitment in the Spending Review for carbon capture and storage projects across the UK. There might be some opportunities for companies in that area, but expensive government-funded projects don't seem to be reliable.

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JAS's avatar

Yes, there appears to be an unwarranted frothy share reaction to this news.

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Tony Davis's avatar

We have no energy security and the goverment have a financial short fall. We should take some more oil out of the north sea. Our current contribution to greenhouse gas is less than 1%. This is a no brainer!

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